Why sold prices, not asking prices

Asking prices are set by the seller and their agent. They reflect optimism, anchoring strategy, and sometimes desperation — but not necessarily what the market will bear. Sold prices are the market. They're the price at which a buyer and seller, with full information and no gun to their heads, agreed to transact.

Building your offer from sold data reverses the psychology: instead of negotiating down from the seller's number, you're building up from evidence — which puts you in a fundamentally stronger position.

Step 1: Pull your comparables

Search the property's postcode. Find the specific street. Then filter by the same property type — terraced, semi-detached, detached, or flat — so you're comparing like-for-like.

Look at the last two to three years of sales on that street. Note the median price (more reliable than the average, which can be skewed by a single outlier) and how many transactions there were each year. More transactions = more confidence in the figure.

Rule of thumb: If a street had fewer than 3 sales in a given year for your property type, treat that year's median with caution. Low transaction counts mean individual properties — not market conditions — are driving the number.

Step 2: Calculate your benchmark

Your offer benchmark is the most recent street median for comparable properties, adjusted for any known material differences in the specific property. Work through it explicitly:

The formula Street median ± condition adjustments
Start with the street median for your property type. Add a premium if the specific property has clear upside: a loft conversion, rear extension, recently fitted kitchen, south-facing garden. Subtract if it's in below-average condition or needs significant work. Be honest — adjustments you can't defend aren't adjustments, they're wishful thinking.

Step 3: Read the market direction

The year-on-year trend is your negotiation context. It tells you which direction time is working.

Buyer's market signals
YoY negative or flat two years running. Transaction volumes falling. Street median below the asking price. Time is on your side — a below-asking offer is rational.
Seller's market signals
YoY consistently positive. Strong transaction volumes. Recent sold prices close to or above asking on comparable streets. Moving fast or offering at asking may be the right call.
Declining new-build premium
If the street's new-build premium is shrinking year on year, the broader market is softening. Gives you confidence to hold a firm position.
Rising 3-year rolling average
A steadily rising 3yr average, even with a flat most recent year, suggests underlying long-term appreciation. Seller can reasonably argue for a forward premium.

Step 4: Build your offer number

You now have three inputs: the street median benchmark, your condition adjustment, and the market direction signal. Put them together into a specific number — not a round-number guess.

A £647,500 offer backed by data is more credible than £650,000 with no rationale. The specificity signals that you've done the work, and that the figure isn't arbitrary.

What to say to the agent

Agents respond to buyers who know their numbers. You don't need to be confrontational — just be specific. Something like: "The most recent sold data for comparable terraced houses on this street puts the median at £638k. This property is in good condition so we're offering £648,000, which reflects a modest premium above comparable sales."

This works better than "we think it's worth less" or vague references to "doing our research." A specific data reference anchors the conversation around facts, not feelings.

When to walk away

If the asking price is materially above recent street-level comparables, the trend is negative, and the seller won't move — that's a signal to walk. An overprice in a falling market compounds: you pay too much at exchange, and the property may be worth less again by the time you need to sell. The data will still be there when a better opportunity comes.

← Am I overpaying? Next: Reading the data →